The Kremlin Plans to Absorb Belarus to Establish a Military Stronghold Against NATO

The West is concerned about the Kremlin’s plans to complete the absorption of Belarus within the next decade, as this creates additional security risks for Ukraine and NATO countries. However, the West has little to counter Russia’s strategy other than acknowledging this reality and incorporating it into military planning.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) asserts that the Kremlin is already conducting the de facto absorption of Belarus, aiming to finalize this process within the next ten years.

According to ISW, this annexation is a long-term strategy implemented across all levels—military, political, and economic. It is designed to exploit Belarus’s resources for aggression against NATO and Ukraine.

The subjugation of Belarus will allow Russia to use its territory, resources, and population to rebuild its economy after the war, prepare strikes against the Baltic states and Poland, and strengthen its geopolitical influence.

ISW emphasizes the need for NATO to account for the annexation of Belarus in its strategic planning. This development will significantly increase the military threat on the Alliance’s eastern flank and require additional resources to contain it. Analysts believe that even a change of power in the Kremlin will not halt this process, as the idea of the “reunification” of Minsk and Moscow is deeply rooted in Russian geopolitical thinking.

The ISW study is largely based on an internal Kremlin document titled “Strategic Goals of the Russian Federation in the Belarusian Direction,” dated 2021. According to the strategy, the Kremlin plans to gain full control over Belarus’s politics, economy, and military potential by 2030. Through deeper integration within the framework of the Union State, Moscow aims to achieve the following goals:

Goals for 2022

– Foster pro-Russian sentiments among the population, including the political and military elite.
– Restrict the influence of nationalist and pro-Western forces in Belarus.
– Complete constitutional reforms in Belarus in favor of Russia.
– Influence Belarus’s political system.
– Establish joint countermeasures against NATO’s expansion and military preparations in Poland and the Baltic states.
– Plan joint military-tactical exercises for the armed forces of Russia and Belarus.
– Extend agreements on the free use of Russian military bases in Belarus.

Goals for 2025

– Create stable pro-Russian influence groups in Belarusian politics, military, and business.
– Expand Russia’s military presence in Belarus.
– Prepare for the production of critically important military goods from Belarusian enterprises in Russia.
– Introduce simplified procedures for issuing Russian passports to Belarusians.

Goals for 2030

– Complete the formation of the Union State of Russia and Belarus.
– Align a unified border and defense policy.
– Establish a unified system for managing armed forces, including uniform standards for personnel training and logistical support.
– Launch the production of critically important military goods from Belarusian enterprises in Russia.

Recent actions by the regime, including the signing of the Treaty on Security Guarantees within the Union State framework, which signifies concessions of sovereignty and independence in favor of Russia in the military-political sphere, confirm these trends.

Military control over Belarusian territory is a key goal for the Kremlin in the context of the conflict with Ukraine and the confrontation with the West/NATO. Such control allows Russia to freely project military power in the western and southern strategic directions. In this context, the Kremlin will continue its efforts to establish a permanent military presence in Belarus through:

– The creation of military bases;
– The inclusion of Belarusian Armed Forces into the Leningrad Military District of the Russian Federation within the framework of the Regional Grouping of Forces;
– The subordination of Belarusian military and security structures to unified command in Moscow.

At present, only democratic forces in exile emphasize the need to develop a strategy for removing Belarus from Russia’s geopolitical control to prevent future Kremlin aggression against neighboring NATO states. Meanwhile, Western analysts call for accepting Russia’s annexation of Belarus as a fact and conducting military planning based on these new realities.