Not a Step Back. Not a Step Forward: Chasing “Victory” in the Cold Waters of Uncertainty

The prospect of peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv, which remains a distant and elusive possibility, keeps official Minsk restless. Meanwhile, the Russian elite is increasingly preoccupied with thoughts of a “post-war world” — specifically, what alternatives the Kremlin could claim as a success from the protracted armed conflict.

Lukashenka is stepping up efforts to secure a seat at the negotiating table on Ukraine, insisting that such talks must take place in Belarus without outside interference. “No Americans, no Europeans — no one will do us any good or help us. We [the three Slavic nations — Ed.] must sit down and reach an agreement ourselves,” he emphasized. However, the “let’s settle everything here ourselves” format proposed by the great negotiator from Minsk is, of course, unacceptable to Kyiv, which does not view Belarus as a neutral party.

Meanwhile, members of the Russian ruling class are increasingly pondering how to exit triumphantly from the military adventure into which the country’s political and military leadership has plunged it. As it turns out, missiles come from both directions, and the potential and actual benefits fail to offset the costs of what is officially termed the “special military operation” (SMO). This sentiment is summarized in a report by Meduza, based on excerpts from conversations with high-ranking anonymous sources within the Presidential Administration, government, State Duma, and regional authorities.

The primary takeaway: disappointment and war fatigue. Meduza’s sources agree that “hopes for a quick peace” and for the easing of sanctions (which have proven impactful) in 2024 have faded since Ukraine’s summer incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. “Certain hopes” for peace among the Russian elite briefly re-emerged after Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, but the current “level of hope isn’t the same.” “Putin has his demands — the territories of four Ukrainian regions in full. Trump has different conditions. Where the compromise lies is unclear,” noted one source close to the Kremlin.

It’s likely that the sentiments of the elite somewhat mirror those of the masses. According to the latest Russian Field polls, 53% of respondents favor peace talks, while 36% support continuing the military operation. The proportion of SMO supporters is at its lowest, while support for negotiations is at its highest since the start of the conflict.

The war will end sooner or later, and something will need to be done. Here lies a fundamental uncertainty: how to prepare for peace when the terms of that peace are unknown? Meduza’s sources are already mulling over the “image of victory,” and as one anonymous source suggests, “victory will likely be defined as any outcome of the SMO.” Regardless, scenarios for “transitioning into a post-war reality” must be developed — or, in simpler terms, distraction spectacles and shows for the public will be needed, such as early State Duma elections.

Among the “new agendas” being considered in the Kremlin to redirect Russians to peaceful life is the scenario of “deeper integration” between Russia and Belarus. Notably, this refers not to military or economic integration, but political integration. “For instance, some kind of shared governing bodies. You could even hold elections, run a campaign, and showcase new achievements. The unification of lands that disintegrated in the 1980s–1990s, a union of republics. It’s a sellable event with positive spin,” said a source in the Presidential Administration, adding that the feasibility of such a scenario “entirely depends on Alexander Lukashenka, who clearly wants to remain the sole ruler.”

Overall, the reasoning of Russian officials seems to be: “The war didn’t go as planned, so let’s peacefully integrate Belarus.” However, such a version of integration is incompatible with the very nature of Lukashenka regime, as he is unwilling to recognize any political super-authority above him. The example of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (ABPA) is telling — Lukashenka opted for another mundane presidential term over a high-ranking position in this organ.

Some experts speculate that Lukashenka’s awareness of the Kremlin’s plans for “deeper integration” prompted him to call for early presidential elections. The goal is to “turn the page” on 2020 before negotiations on Ukraine begin, and if luck permits, to secure a role as a key participant in the process.

Each of the three parties — Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine — is vying for a share of something that no longer exists and cannot exist: the symbolic or material gain usually referred to as victory.