Lukashenka Advocates for Negotiations with Ukraine but Is Ready to Lend Military Support to Russia Again if Necessary

The Lukashenka’s regime is once again signaling its willingness to participate in peace talks with Ukraine. At the same time, the dictator seeks security guarantees from both Kyiv and Western capitals. Minsk calls for the process to start as soon as possible to avoid further escalation. If this does not happen, Lukashenka is prepared to once again offer Belarusian territory to Russian forces for an attack on Ukraine from the north, without fear of any consequences from the West.

At the Second Conference on Eurasian Security in Minsk, Lukashenka expressed a desire to participate in peace talks to ensure the country’s security. Belarus’s position continues to reflect Kremlin interests, as the dictator’s statements support Russia’s interpretation of events and criticize the West.

Belarusian leadership emphasizes that including Minsk in talks about Ukraine is crucial for Belarus’s own security. Thus, the Lukashenka regime is ready to help reduce tensions and act as a mediator.

Lukashenka claims that after recent meetings with unnamed Western representatives, they have allegedly begun to understand the necessity of negotiations. The dictator noted that the West, recognizing both sides’ culpability in the conflict, is shifting away from placing sole responsibility on Russia. He mentioned that Russia’s “successes” on the front lines supposedly make compromise difficult. Lukashenka stressed that the West faces the challenge of preserving its reputation, as withdrawing support from Ukraine could resemble the situation in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, he pointed out that Ukraine is exhausted and about to run out of mobilization resources, further pushing it toward negotiations. However, Kyiv’s ambitions, such as its “victory plan,” complicate the path to compromise.

Lukashenka also accused the West of breaking promises not to expand NATO eastward, which, he says, Russia perceives as a threat. He cited the alleged discrimination against Russian-speaking populations in Ukraine as one of the conflict’s causes. As an example, he mentioned Belarus, where Russian is an official language, and called for respect for cultural and historical ties between nations.

He referenced Angela Merkel’s acknowledgment that the Minsk agreements were used as a temporary measure to freeze the conflict and strengthen Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia, which, according to him, eroded the Kremlin’s trust in these agreements.

Lukashenka clarified that he did not authorize Russia to use Belarusian territory for the offensive. According to his account, Russian troops were stationed in Belarus for exercises, and their subsequent invasion of Ukraine was triggered by provocations from Kyiv at a moment when Moscow was allegedly beginning to withdraw its forces. The dictator claims that Ukraine, the West, and the Vatican tried to stop Russian advances through Belarus by appealing to him to influence Putin. Despite these appeals, Russian forces continued their operations, and Ukrainian generals supposedly called Minsk, asking Lukashenka to assist in facilitating their surrender to Russian forces.

Lukashenka also supports Putin’s proposal to use agreements reached in Minsk and Istanbul as a basis for resuming negotiations, although he acknowledged that the conditions have changed significantly.

The Belarusian dictator warns that without talks now, further escalation is possible, especially if the West uses the alleged intervention of North Korea as a pretext for a potential NATO troop deployment.

Lukashenka stated that the U.S. has repeatedly threatened Belarus with sanctions and military intervention if Belarus provides its territory to Russian armed forces. In response, he emphasized that Belarus will not bow to Western pressure and will strengthen its resolve to resist sanctions and threats, effectively admitting his readiness to support Russia once again.

Thus, on one hand, Belarusian leadership seeks to portray Minsk as willing to mediate. However, Lukashenka’s pro-Russian rhetoric and justification of military actions from Belarusian territory cast doubt on his neutrality and sincerity.

Although Lukashenka claims that Belarus did not take part in initiating hostilities, he makes it clear that, if necessary, he will once again allow Russian forces to use Belarusian territory for an attack on Ukraine from the north, unconcerned about any serious repercussions from the West.