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December 16 – December 22, 2019
Belarus-Russia relations

Belarus and Russia continue the movement towards a temporary compromise instead of a “major deal”

The situation has not changed
Belarus and Russia continue the movement towards a temporary compromise instead of a “major deal”

It is more and more likely that Belarus and Russia would extend the existing terms of oil and gas supplies to Belarus in 2020 (or H1 2020), and continue negotiations on “deeper integration” next year.

The meeting of the negotiating teams on the sidelines of the EEU and CIS Summits has not added any specifics to the terms of cooperation between Belarus and Russia in 2020. The lack of progress on the integration agenda means that the terms of cooperation in 2020 will remain approximately the same as in 2019.

There is, however, the possibility that the parties would start the new year of 2020 without a gas supply contract, should Russia disagree even with a symbolic reduction in the gas price for Minsk. However, most likely, judging by the fact that Gazprom has signed a five-year contract with Ukraine, the Kremlin would accept a tiny concession.

The integration process would most likely continue in 2010.

Author: Valeriya Kostyugova

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Once a week, in coordination with a group of leading Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries to the most topical and relevant issues, including on behind the scenes processes ongoing in Belarus, in Russian and English.
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