“Back to Back: A Big Conversation with the Russian People”

The imagined “sovereignty” and “independence” were the main pillars of Lukashenka’s previous propaganda campaign, tentatively titled “from victory to victory.” On the eve of the 2025 presidential elections, the emphasis has shifted: Moscow is now viewed as the Big external elector. “Back to back” could be the working title of Lukashenko’s new political campaign, aimed partly at the Russian audience.

On August 15, Lukashenka gave a two-hour interview to the television channel “Russia.” He reminded that there were difficult times in the history of relations between the two countries (suffice it to recall the scandals over the hostile takeover of “Belgazprombank” or the capture of the “Wagner” fighters in the summer of 2020 – editor’s note), but now both states stand back to back and “fire back” at their enemies.

The allied relations between Belarus and Russia are of a “natural” character in the sense that the two peoples are practically indistinguishable from each other. “As some say, we are Russian people. How do we differ – Belarusians from Russians? Not at all,” Lukashenka concluded.

Thus, the theme of “unity” and “brotherhood” will dominate throughout the next six months, i.e., during the electoral campaign in Belarus. Against the backdrop of global Russophobia, Lukashenka is obliged to flatter the Kremlin’s ego and flatter the Russian people as much as possible. However, it is important to maintain balance: to appear as a legitimate representative of a genuine subject of international relations, and not just a banal figurehead of the “Russian world.” Lukashenka has done this before, and being the cunning politician he is, he will “season” the Russian audience with spices more delicious and exquisite than any other nation in the world can offer.

When asked by his interlocutor how he assesses Belarusian-Russian integration at this stage, Lukashenka essentially did not answer. He simply stated that integration is based on his close relationship with Putin. Or literally: “You in Russia and we in Belarus need to follow the footsteps of the two presidents. You see our relationship – absolutely close.”

This emphasized that the process is not automatic and that Lukashenka is the indispensable guarantor of the implementation of existing integration deals in Belarus, as well as the conclusion of new ones.

Regarding the “close” relationship between Lukashenka and Putin, former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov commented quite definitively (on the very day of the Big Interview): “They are forced partners and must demonstrate this. Lukashenka understands that this is a matter of his regime’s survival. He needs Putin, and Putin needs Lukashenka. They have a mutual forced love.” Putin considers Belarus a quasi-state (as well as Ukraine), with which there is no need to negotiate on equal terms. He believes that Belarus should be part of Russia.

In short, as the leaders’ relationship goes, so does the integration. It’s important not only what a politician says but also what he doesn’t say. If there were truly significant achievements in Belarusian-Russian integration (or import substitution), propagandists on both sides would be trumpeting them non-stop. But for now – apart from plans and projects – there is practically nothing to talk about.