Belarus in Focus: Annual Review 2022 and Forecast for 2023

Belarus in Focus is pleased to present our annual analytical review for 2022 and forecasts for 2023. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the political, economic, and social developments in Belarus over the past year, as well as a look ahead at what we can expect in the coming year. Our team of experts has carefully studied the latest data and trends to provide a comprehensive overview of the current state of affairs in Belarus. We have also included our predictions for the future, based on our analysis of the key factors that will shape the country’s trajectory in the coming year. We hope that this report will be a valuable resource for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of Belarus and its place in the world.

Read the report in .pdf here

Власть демонстрирует низкий интерес к повышению явки Authorities figure acceptable agenda for dialogue with civil society on Kurapaty Minsk aspires to compensate for economic failures with foreign policy successes

Situation in Belarus

September 11 – September 17

Belarus-Russia relations

Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet increases international pressure on the regime, and democratic forces rally around the idea of European integration

Belarus-West relations

Lukashenka calls on neighboring countries for friendship, while the European Parliament calls for an ICC warrant for his arrest

Constitutional referendum: main consequences

April 12, 2022

Speakers: Anatoliy Lebedko, Andrei Kazakevich

Video

How to count the political prisoners: are the new criteria needed?

March 28, 2022

Speakers: Aleh Hulak, Aleh Aheyeu, Viachaslau Kasinierau

Video

Paternalism In Decline, Belarusian Euroscepticism, And The Influence Of Russia

October 11, 2021

Video

View all

Belarusian Yearbook 2022

Belarus-Russia relations

Basic Integration Course: North Korea

September 11 – September 17

Isolationism as a Fundamental Political and Economic Strategy

September 4 – September 10

Import substitution comes of age: machine tools, aircraft, MAZ, etc

August 14 – August 20

Minsk is thinking about energy consumption. Belarusian fuel may disappear from the Russian market

August 7 – August 13

Trends

Belarus-West relations

Lukashenka calls on neighboring countries for friendship, while the European Parliament calls for an ICC warrant for his arrest

September 11 – September 17

The “Passport Decree” raises concerns in the West and prompts further criticism of the regime

September 4 – September 10

The regime leverages distant allies and nuclear weapons to confront the West

August 14 – August 20

On the third anniversary of the 2020 protests, the West has not forgotten about Belarus as the regime calls for dialogue

August 7 – August 13

Trends

Security issues

Is the government trying to emulate the business model of PMC Wagner?

September 11 – September 17

The regime is trying to appear more conciliatory and transparent, but its efforts are not proving successful

September 4 – September 10

Lukashenka issues an ultimatum to Ukraine: Russia is preparing for a new offensive

August 14 – August 20

Credit of distrust: in response to the expansion of the Wagner PMC base in Belarus, neighbouring countries strengthen border protection

August 7 – August 13

Trends

Society and political parties

Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet increases international pressure on the regime, and democratic forces rally around the idea of European integration

September 11 – September 17

Dems forces are consolidating political migration, fatigue is growing among supporters of the force scenario

September 4 – September 10

Sanction pressure weakened the regime, society’s fatigue from confrontation with the regime

August 14 – August 20

Democrats call for a boycott of the 2024 elections as the United Provisional Cabinet continues to isolate pro-government organisations

August 7 – August 13

Trends

The ruling elite

The government is priming the economy with significant injections of funds ahead of the upcoming elections

September 11 – September 17

Filtering raids by security forces in the public sector, high profitability of business in exchange for periodic expropriations

September 4 – September 10

Regime pre-election measures include an increase in public sector salaries, restrictions on the private sector, and more repression of opponents

August 14 – August 20

Regime enforcers plan non-stop repression as the ruling class prepares for elections

August 7 – August 13

Belarus in Focus: Annual Review 2022 and Forecast for 2023

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Constitutional referendum: main consequences

How to count the political prisoners: are the new criteria needed?

Paternalism In Decline, Belarusian Euroscepticism, And The Influence Of Russia

Subscribe to us

Belarusian Yearbook 2022

Basic Integration Course: North Korea

Isolationism as a Fundamental Political and Economic Strategy

Import substitution comes of age: machine tools, aircraft, MAZ, etc

Minsk is thinking about energy consumption. Belarusian fuel may disappear from the Russian market

Lukashenka calls on neighboring countries for friendship, while the European Parliament calls for an ICC warrant for his arrest

The “Passport Decree” raises concerns in the West and prompts further criticism of the regime

The regime leverages distant allies and nuclear weapons to confront the West

On the third anniversary of the 2020 protests, the West has not forgotten about Belarus as the regime calls for dialogue

Is the government trying to emulate the business model of PMC Wagner?

The regime is trying to appear more conciliatory and transparent, but its efforts are not proving successful

Lukashenka issues an ultimatum to Ukraine: Russia is preparing for a new offensive

Credit of distrust: in response to the expansion of the Wagner PMC base in Belarus, neighbouring countries strengthen border protection

Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet increases international pressure on the regime, and democratic forces rally around the idea of European integration

Dems forces are consolidating political migration, fatigue is growing among supporters of the force scenario

Sanction pressure weakened the regime, society’s fatigue from confrontation with the regime

Democrats call for a boycott of the 2024 elections as the United Provisional Cabinet continues to isolate pro-government organisations

The government is priming the economy with significant injections of funds ahead of the upcoming elections

Filtering raids by security forces in the public sector, high profitability of business in exchange for periodic expropriations

Regime pre-election measures include an increase in public sector salaries, restrictions on the private sector, and more repression of opponents

Regime enforcers plan non-stop repression as the ruling class prepares for elections