Why Belarus Is About To Get Interesting
The situation has not changed
Brian Whitmore writes about why Belarus is about to get interesting now.
After pointing out to the release of six political prisoners two weeks earlier which he sees a symbolic act towards the West, he points out that Russia is now using the moment to pressure Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s regime into ‘taking a side’ in its conflict with the West.
But the Kremlin appears to have had enough of the “neutrality” of Lukashenka and pushes to create a military airbase in Belarus.
According to Russian press reports, the real goal of Prime Minister Medvedev’s trip to Belarus is to deliver a message from the Kremlin: It’s time to stop bobbing and weaving between Moscow and the West and get on board.
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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.
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Situation in Belarus
December 9 – December 15
Constitutional referendum: main consequences
April 12, 2022
Speakers: Anatoliy Lebedko, Andrei Kazakevich
Video
How to count the political prisoners: are the new criteria needed?
March 28, 2022
Speakers: Aleh Hulak, Aleh Aheyeu, Viachaslau Kasinierau
Video
Paternalism In Decline, Belarusian Euroscepticism, And The Influence Of Russia
October 11, 2021
Video
State Standards of Belarus vs Rosselkhoznadzor: Common Goals, Different Standards
December 9 – December 15
Unified Defense Space Almost Established, Unified Energy Market Still Absent
December 2 – December 8
Episodes of “Black November”: The Trump Factor, Sanctions, and Liquid Currency
November 25 – December 1
The Dollar Falling Upward: A New Exchange Rate Reality or Currency Normality?
November 18 – November 24
EU Imposes New Sanctions on Belarus Despite Calls from Democratic Forces for a Differentiated Strategy
December 9 – December 15
Strategic Dialogue with the USA: Attempt to Keep Washington’s Focus on Belarus
December 2 – December 8
The Belarusian Issue Ahead of the Leadership Change in the EU
November 25 – December 1
Lukashenka’s Peacekeeping Intentions Clash with the Kremlin’s Plans for Ukraine
November 18 – November 24
Kremlin to Share the “Oreshnik” Missile System with Lukashenko’s Regime to Expose Belarus to Potential NATO Retaliation
December 9 – December 15
Russia Solidifies Belarus in Its Sphere of Influence and Prepares for Conflict with Ukraine and the West
December 2 – December 8
Lukashenka’s Regime Contributed to the Creation of the “Oreshnik” and Seeks to Deploy It in Belarus
November 25 – December 1
The Kremlin Shields Belarus with a Nuclear Umbrella but Silences Its Voice
November 18 – November 24
Dilution of the Democratic Forces’ Agenda: Isolation or De-escalation?
December 9 – December 15
Democratic Forces: Navigating the “Elections” Without Losses
December 2 – December 8
Tsikhanouskaya’s Office: Consolidation and Protection of Activists
November 25 – December 1
New Challenges: Kanapatskaya and the Security Forces’ Special Operations
November 18 – November 24
The Conveyor Belt of Re-education of Dissenters: New Prison Spaces at the Expense of Amnesty
December 9 – December 15
Deferred Transition of the Lukashenka Family
December 2 – December 8
Lukashenka’s Regime: Navigating Elections Ahead of a Crisis
November 25 – December 1
Elections in Full Swing: Lukashenka Everywhere
November 18 – November 24