Political situation: prognosis for 2015

– The government will not dare to revise the existing socio-economic model in the year of presidential elections. Instead, it will continue to reduce social guarantees and introduce new mechanisms to recover resources from the population;

– The authorities will continue to limit socio-political activity, maintaining repression at a high level;

– The chances of the opposition nominating a “single opposition candidate” for the upcoming elections are lower than ever;

– Trade wars between Belarus and Russia will continue and, with the crisis developing in the Russian economy, the attractiveness and benefits of the Eurasian Economic Union for Belarus will seriously reduce;

– The Kremlin will increase information pressure on the Belarusian leadership;

– Official Minsk will continue the process of unconditionally regulating relations with western capitals.