Repairs at Naftan will worsen economic statistics in short term
The situation has not changed
Naftan oil refinery will undergo a planned overhaul from mid-August to mid-September 2014, i.e. two-thirds of the refinery will stop working.
The refinery last had a major overhaul in September-October 2011. A break in Naftan’s operations will imply reduced oil imports and oil products export, wholesale trade figures will be corrected downwards, the industrial production index in the Vitebsk region may drop below the August 2013 standard, leading to slower growth and GRP dynamics. However, the overhaul will have only short-term effects, and the Vitebsk region will improve its performance by as soon as October 2014.
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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.
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Situation in Belarus
December 16 – December 22
Constitutional referendum: main consequences
April 12, 2022
Speakers: Anatoliy Lebedko, Andrei Kazakevich
Video
How to count the political prisoners: are the new criteria needed?
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Speakers: Aleh Hulak, Aleh Aheyeu, Viachaslau Kasinierau
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Paternalism In Decline, Belarusian Euroscepticism, And The Influence Of Russia
October 11, 2021
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Digital Financial Assets: Bypassing Traditional Payment Systems?
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State Standards of Belarus vs Rosselkhoznadzor: Common Goals, Different Standards
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Unified Defense Space Almost Established, Unified Energy Market Still Absent
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Episodes of “Black November”: The Trump Factor, Sanctions, and Liquid Currency
November 25 – December 1
Lukashenka’s Regime’s Role in Negotiations to End the War in Ukraine in Question
December 16 – December 22
EU Imposes New Sanctions on Belarus Despite Calls from Democratic Forces for a Differentiated Strategy
December 9 – December 15
Strategic Dialogue with the USA: Attempt to Keep Washington’s Focus on Belarus
December 2 – December 8
The Belarusian Issue Ahead of the Leadership Change in the EU
November 25 – December 1
Putin Reminded of the Nuclear Umbrella over Belarus, While Lukashenka Mentioned Nuclear Weapons
December 16 – December 22
Kremlin to Share the “Oreshnik” Missile System with Lukashenko’s Regime to Expose Belarus to Potential NATO Retaliation
December 9 – December 15
Russia Solidifies Belarus in Its Sphere of Influence and Prepares for Conflict with Ukraine and the West
December 2 – December 8
Lukashenka’s Regime Contributed to the Creation of the “Oreshnik” and Seeks to Deploy It in Belarus
November 25 – December 1
New Challenges to Tsikhanouskaya’s Leadership
December 16 – December 22
Dilution of the Democratic Forces’ Agenda: Isolation or De-escalation?
December 9 – December 15
Democratic Forces: Navigating the “Elections” Without Losses
December 2 – December 8
Tsikhanouskaya’s Office: Consolidation and Protection of Activists
November 25 – December 1
National Unity Before Elections: The Paper Tiger of Support
December 16 – December 22
The Conveyor Belt of Re-education of Dissenters: New Prison Spaces at the Expense of Amnesty
December 9 – December 15
Deferred Transition of the Lukashenka Family
December 2 – December 8
Lukashenka’s Regime: Navigating Elections Ahead of a Crisis
November 25 – December 1