События в Украине сужают электоральную базу оппозиции в Беларуси
The situation has not changed
Празднование 25 марта оппозицией очередной годовщины провозглашения Белорусской Народной Республики прошло под знаком солидарности с Украиной и осуждения российской агрессии в этой стране.
Власти лояльно отнеслись к организаторам и участникам акции и не пошли на обострение ситуации, а число принявших участие даже несколько превысило предварительно заявленное организаторами количество. Это стало возможным благодаря мобилизации оппозиционно настроенной части общества под влиянием украинских событий. Однако концентрация внимания на украинской тематике значительно ограничивает шансы белорусской оппозиции усилить воздействие своих идей на население, большинство которого осуждает беспорядки в Украине после Майдана.
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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.
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Situation in Belarus
July 15 – July 21
Constitutional referendum: main consequences
April 12, 2022
Speakers: Anatoliy Lebedko, Andrei Kazakevich
Video
How to count the political prisoners: are the new criteria needed?
March 28, 2022
Speakers: Aleh Hulak, Aleh Aheyeu, Viachaslau Kasinierau
Video
Paternalism In Decline, Belarusian Euroscepticism, And The Influence Of Russia
October 11, 2021
Video
The Straight Path to Import Substitution
July 15 – July 21
Digital Geopolitics: Creating Our Own “National” Stack
July 8 – July 14
Economy in the morning – single currency in the evening. But Money First
July 1 – July 7
XI Forum of Regions: Lilliputians Breed Ever Smaller Lilliputians
June 24 – June 30
The Regime Introduces Visa-Free Entry for European Countries, While the EU Strengthens the Iron Curtain for Belarusians
July 15 – July 21
The Regime Pretends to Take Criticism Seriously and Reduces Migration Pressure. But for How Long?
July 8 – July 14
Amnesty Does Not Remove the Belarusian Question from the UN Agenda; Claims from the West and China Persist
July 1 – July 7
The EU Expands Anti-Russian Sanctions to Belarus
June 24 – June 30
The Krieger Case: Is the Kremlin Turning Belarus into a Hub for “Spy” Exchanges?
July 15 – July 21
China Did Not Support Escalation at the Ukrainian Border; Lukashenko Forced to Temporarily Retreat
July 8 – July 14
Minsk and Moscow Attempt to Drag China into Conflict with Ukraine and NATO
July 1 – July 7
Is the Regime Preparing Belarusians for a Future Casus Belli with Ukraine?
June 24 – June 30
Strategy of Democratic Forces for the 2025 Elections: To Boycott or to Participate
July 15 – July 21
Diplomatic Achievements of Democratic Forces and Communication Failure with Belarusians
July 8 – July 14
Calibration of Positions: Sanctions on the Regime and Mobility for Belarusians
July 1 – July 7
Democratic forces are encountering dual leadership: Tsikhanouskaya’s leadership vs Latushka’s coalition
June 24 – June 30
Regime Doppelgängers: Lukashenko’s Appointees in the Regions
July 15 – July 21
Clashes Among Lukashenka Supporters: Propagandists vs. “Russian World” Activists
July 8 – July 14
After the Return of “Popular Love” – Liberalization 4.0?
July 1 – July 7
Turning Back to the 2000s – Regaining Public Favor
June 24 – June 30