Beginning of unemployment growth

The difficult situation in the Belarusian economy and financial sector recently forced 600 thousand workers to leave their jobs temporarily, said the Chairman of the National Statistics Committee of Belarus, Chairman of the Council for Enterprise Development, Vladimir Zinovsky.

He explained that among other reasons, it was also linked to the currency issues.

Comment

The official unemployment rate in Belarus is 0.5%. By autumn this figure will increase significantly. In the meanwhile enterprises send people on temporary leave, mostly it concerns importers. However, soon the exporting enterprises will suspend their activities as well, among the first, those who buy imported raw materials and components.

Therefore the commencing full-scale systemic crisis led to a significant surge in unemployment. As crisis deteriorates, irrelevant of the timing and rate of the devaluation, there will be more tensions in the labor market. Since the government has no programme of action, or experience in providing employment for many people, the authorities are afraid of this situation and will try to maintain the current state of affairs to the possible extent. Recession could result in 1-1.5 million of unemployed, which subsequently will affect all spheres of the economy (non-payment of loans to banks, reducing consumption, increased crime rates, non-payment of utility services, etc.).