Belarus in Focus Information Office

Security issues

- The situation has deteriorated

- The situation has not changed

- The situation has improved

03 - 09.05.2021

The decree on the expanded powers of the Security Council may change the leadership dynamics of the Belarusian state security agencies.

26 - 02.05.2021

The strength of the CSTO is being tested by internal conflicts

Despite the enthusiasm of official declarations, the CSTO cannot be considered to guarantee the security of its participants.

19 - 25.04.2021

Belarusian-Ukrainian relations are approaching a nadir

We are witnessing a rapid deterioration in confidence between Minsk and Kyiv in the security sphere.

12 - 18.04.2021

Russian fighter jets are already present in Belarus

Demonstrating loyalty to Moscow in the military sphere is a traditional tool of the Belarusian political strategy when it either requires...

English: Sukhoi T-50 stealth multirole aircraft at MAKS-2011 airshow; image by Dmitry Zherdin

05 - 11.04.2021

Belarus and Poland teeter on the brink of confrontation

The previously positive dynamics of Belarusian-Polish relations in the sphere of regional security have deteriorated to such an extent that...

29 - 04.04.2021

Political opponents of the Belarusian regime labelled as terrorists

Accusing their opponents of planning violent acts is a long-standing practice of the Belarusian regime during volatile political campaigns.

22 - 28.03.2021

The Belarusian Military-Industrial Complex is at risk

After a protracted growth period, the national military-industrial complex faces increasing economic difficulties, which can be hushed up,...

15 - 21.03.2021

The Belarusian regime legalises repressive practices

Contrary to claims that the situation in Belarus has stabilised, the actions of the regime suggest that their control remains very fragile.

08 - 14.03.2021

Loss of confidence leads to new leadership

Several law enforcement agency personnel decisions last week were driven by the need to buttress loyalty.

01 - 07.03.2021

Minsk uses Russia to intimidate the West. Again

The Belarusian regime continues to use military cooperation with Russia to promote its non-military interests in Moscow and deflect Western...

Belarus-Russia relations

- The situation has deteriorated

- The situation has not changed

- The situation has improved

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03 - 09.05.2021

Lukashenko signs a decree, as Putin recalls “The Soviet people stood alone”

On May 9, Lukashenka signed a decree

26 - 02.05.2021

Moscow continues to exploit the weakness and self-confidence of Minsk

Last week, anonymous sources associated with the Russian oil industry publicly threatened Belarus with a supply interruption to the Naftan...

19 - 25.04.2021

Russia can get guarantees without an SMS or a QR Code

Lukashenka announced

12 - 18.04.2021

The FSB is involved in ensuring Belarus’ internal state security

The arrest of Aliaksandar Feduta and Juras Ziankovich in Moscow followed by comments from the heads of the Belarusian KGB and Russian FSB...

05 - 11.04.2021

Belarus and Russia make no exceptions for each other where repressive laws are concerned

Last week, Belarus and Russia were preparing to open regular inter-country passenger services, and both also continued to tighten the law...

29 - 04.04.2021

Belarus is desperate for money

On the occasion of the Unity Day celebrations of the peoples of Belarus and Russia, Belarusian officials announced a long list of areas and...

22 - 28.03.2021

A new ambassador and the Nuclear Power Plant with festive decorations

The new Russian ambassador to Belarus, Yevgeny Lukyanov, has been confirmed. There has not yet been any progress on joint investment...

15 - 21.03.2021

Putin and Lukashenka’s Constitution

Lukashenka’s proposals for military rapprochement with Russia did nothing to reduce the Kremlin’s interest in Belarusian constitutional...

08 - 14.03.2021

Changing the guard

On the Russian side, the central figures overseeing Russian-Belarusian relations are rotating.

Embassy of Russia in Belarus. 1A Navavilienskaja street (Minsk, Belarus). Author: Homoatrox

01 - 07.03.2021

Lukashenka seeks closer military cooperation with Russia

After meeting with Putin in Sochi, Lukashenka announced his preferred routes for strengthening the alliance, mainly military cooperation...

Belarus-West relations

- The situation has deteriorated

- The situation has not changed

- The situation has improved

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03 - 09.05.2021

All bleak on the Western Front

The past week has seen a lot of news related to Belarus's relations with the West, almost universally conveying a negative outlook.

eurasia.expert (https://eurasia.expert/)

26 - 02.05.2021

Minsk believes it has nothing to lose

Minsk acts as if they are convinced that the reactivation of US sanctions against five petrochemical companies is the full extent of the...

Владимир Макей. Фото: .facebook.com/belarusmfa

19 - 25.04.2021

The US strengthens sanctions policy, EU prepares fourth sanctions package

As predicted, Belarus is entering another round of crisis in relations with the West.

12 - 18.04.2021

Another round of conflict with the West

Minsk intends to raise the stakes in the conflict with the EU and the United States, to the point of depriving itself of the last channels...

Юрась Зянковіч/Juras Ziankovich. Image from Wikipedia

05 - 11.04.2021

No glimmer of light in the escalating confrontation with the West

Last week Lukashenka demanded a reduction in the Belarusian d

29 - 04.04.2021

Conflict with the US intensifies

Belarus and western countries (particularly the United States) show no signs of making concessions and are ready to further intensify the...

46-ы прэзыдэнт ЗША Джо Байдэн першы дзень у Белым доме

22 - 28.03.2021

Minsk seeks to escalate confrontation with the US and the EU

The conflict between Belarus and the West continued to intensify last week as tension with America increased.

15 - 21.03.2021

Conflict with the West and Tsikhanouskaya’s international activities continue

The conflict with the West is not diminishing; mutual hostile rhetoric persists.

08 - 14.03.2021

Conflict with Poland risks escalating to the broader European level

To the West, last week was overshadowed by the aggravation of diplomatic conflict with Poland centred on the Polish national day of...

01 - 07.03.2021

The E.U. and U.S. coordinate action on Belarus

The verdicts against journalist Katsiaryna Barysevich and doctor Artsiom Sarokin triggered another wave of adverse reaction in the West,...

The ruling elite

- The situation has deteriorated

- The situation has not changed

- The situation has improved

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03 - 09.05.2021

Lukashenka consolidates regime loyalty and reins in the development of political parties

The President continues to consolidate regime loyalty by sifting functionaries with career aspirations on ideological grounds.

26 - 02.05.2021

The referendum, local elections and the dependency of the public sector

The authorities continue to support the current economic model with financial support for state-owned companies and the controlled...

19 - 25.04.2021

The outlook of government and private business continues to diverge

The authorities are using the “coup case” and the integration plans of Minsk and Moscow to dominate the news agenda.

12 - 18.04.2021

Security forces aim for complete demotivation of protests

The National Bank demonstrates its continued influence on monetary policy by raising the refinancing rate.

05 - 11.04.2021

Legislators delegate the choice of victims to law enforcement officers’ discretion

The regime narrows the permitted scope of registered Civil Society organisations’ activities and plans legislative restrictions on...

29 - 04.04.2021

The legalisation of political repression, criminal cases against political exiles and ex-siloviki

The Belarusian security forces have lobbied to legalise repressive practices against dissenters, independent journalists and protest...

23 жніўня 2020 году. Марш у Менску. Фота "Радыё Свабода"

22 - 28.03.2021

Riot gear and repression on the streets of the capital

The security forces return to indiscriminate mass detention in the capital, bringing in troops with riot gear and pre-emptively harassing...

15 - 21.03.2021

The apparatus of the state is preoccupied with the campaign against dissent

The authorities are directing the state apparatus and public services to combat dissent with negative consequences for the quality of...

08 - 14.03.2021

The regime is preparing for economic difficulties and requires the army to “fight from within”

Several recent decisions have been motivated by the need to maintain the loyalty of the ruling class and the security forces in the face of...

Пратэстовец стаіць насупраць ланцугу вайскоўцаў, трымаючы ў руках бел-чырвона-белы сцяжок 23 жніўня 2020 года / Еўрарадыё

01 - 07.03.2021

Discussion about the transfer of power and political parties resumes, but repressions do not abate

The security forces continue with large-scale repression and other actions to demotivate protest activists and prevent spring mobilisation.

Society and political parties

- The situation has deteriorated

- The situation has not changed

- The situation has improved

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03 - 09.05.2021

Civil Society Organisations attempt to seize the narrative on Victory Day

Civil Society organisations and protest movement are attempting to seize the initiative around Victory Day events and sideline the...

26 - 02.05.2021

Tsikhanouskaya enlists Austrian support in negotiations

Politically motivated emigration continues to have a significant impact on relations between Minsk and Western capitals.

19 - 25.04.2021

Civil Society Organisations concentrate on the threat to independence

Civil Society and political organisations are compelled to respond to the authorities news agenda concerning the "coup case" and the threat...

12 - 18.04.2021

The public retains its interest in parties and politics

Political exiles and the diaspora are creating a sustainable crowdfunding infrastructure abroad to support Civil Society and victims of the...

05 - 11.04.2021

Democratic organisations maintain unity in their demands to the authorities

Democratic political organisations conform to their joint plan, and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s position as the legitimate leader of...

Павел Латушка, Вольга Кавалькова, Святлана Ціханоўская, Вераніка і Валерый Цапкала / @tsikhanouskaya

29 - 04.04.2021

Civil Society embraces safer forms of protest and mutual aid as the party formation agenda resumes

Political organisations are looking for safer ways to express discontent and exert pressure for regime change than street protests, such as...

22 - 28.03.2021

Decentralised protests intensify as political exiles promote creation of international mechanisms

Mass street rallies on the central streets of the capital on or around Freedom Day did not occur, but local marches and protest activity...

15 - 21.03.2021

Political headquarters devise a spring programme while social networks dominate information space

The headquarters of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the Coordination Council and NAU (the AntiCrisisAdministration) are regaining their leading...

08 - 14.03.2021

Structural strengthening of Civil Society continues, but party-building does not progress

A film about Lukashenka’s state-funded opulence was watched by 5 million people.

01 - 07.03.2021

Political Headquarters, Parties and Civil Society Organisations strengthen their structures

To date, the agenda of Civil Society and political exiles have been dominated by sanctions rhetoric and reaction to repression, but the...

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