Towards New Belarus: factors of transformation

August 18, 2021 12:22

On the anniversary of the March of New Belarus, the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies will present its study on the analysis of possible scenarios for political transformations in Belarus.

Over the past 70 years, there have been about 480 cases of authoritarian rulers leaving. In 45% of cases, this led to a regime change, and in about half of the cases, the authoritarian regime was replaced by a democratic one.

These figures force us to look beyond the question “When will Lukashenka leave?” and pay attention to the other two: "What is the likelihood of a regime change after Lukashenka leaves?" and "What is the likelihood that the regime will change to a democratic one (and not to a new kind of autocracy)?"

Today’s open questions include:

  • What are the pillars of the Belarusian autocracy and how stable are they?
  • What factors can contribute to the dismantling of the Belarusian autocracy and what factors can hinder its dismantling?
  • What is the influence of these factors on the transition to democracy once autocracy possibly falls?


  • Piotr Rudkouski, PhD, BISS director, coordinator of the research “To New Belarus: scenarios of transformation”
  • Pavel Usov, PhD in political science, head of Center for Political Analysis and Prognosis (Warsaw)
  • Vitali Tsyhankou, political commentator of Radio Liberty/Radio Free Europe Belarusian service
  • Lesia Rudnik, researcher of the Center for New Ideas, PhD student at Karlstad University
  • Piotr Kuzniacou (TBC), founder of Silnye Novosti (Homiel)


  • Vadim Mojeiko (BISS)
  • Anton Ruliou (Belarus in Focus Information Office/Press Club Belarus)

Working languages:

Belarusian and Russian with interpretation to English

How to participate (please note that you will not be able to join the meeting after it starts):

1.            To join the online discussion, please fill out the Google Form (

2.            In response, you will receive a link inviting you to join a Zoom meeting (if you do not have Zoom, you may install it on your PC, phone or tablet following the same link. It is free and easy).


•             Belarus in Focus Information Office

•             Press Club Belarus

•             Nashe Mnenie

•             Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS)

Short title: 
Towards New Belarus: factors of transformation